A national advertising campaign
Republican spending on transgender-related attacks against Democrats generated about 217,000 television spots through Oct. 25, according to AdImpact estimates provided to the Associated Press. The $183 million total surpassed the roughly $151 million spent on similar Republican ads at the same point before the 2024 presidential election.
The Texas Senate contest drew the largest share: an estimated $58 million, paying for more than 50,000 airings. Democrats, meanwhile, spent roughly $11 million on transgender-related advertising, mostly in their own defense.
Republican pollster Chris Wilson told the AP that the strategy does not depend on transgender policy ranking among voters' biggest concerns. "It's not necessarily that transgender policy is a top voting priority; it's that voters can use a candidate's position on it as a proxy for their broader values and judgment."
For candidates whose politics are closely tied to their faith, the attacks also challenge their religious legitimacy. Experts interviewed by Religion News Service described a Republican effort to turn the LGBTQ-affirming theology of Democratic pastors and seminarians against them. Six of the nine Democratic clergy and seminarians seeking congressional seats this year belong to mainline Protestant traditions; four of those six are in closely watched races.
Kristin Kobes Du Mez, a Calvin University historian of evangelicalism, said Republicans are "getting a lot of mileage" from this approach. Evangelicals, she said, tend to regard trans rights as "against God's order."
Texas attacks focus on Talarico's faith
James Talarico, a Texas state representative and Presbyterian seminarian seeking a U.S. Senate seat, has faced attacks over his 2021 description of God as "nonbinary." His Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, released an ad showing an AI-generated Talarico repeating the remark as he writes in a "King James Talarico Bible."
While campaigning for Paxton, President Donald Trump has falsely said Talarico called God transgender. Vice President JD Vance has also used a derogatory insinuation that Talarico is attracted to men.
Elon Musk, a Texas resident who supports Paxton, has helped finance many of the anti-LGBTQ ads targeting Talarico and circulated them on X, the platform he owns. On Oct. 26, Musk wrote, "Talarico will vote to take away your children and transition them."
Some critics have treated Talarico's remarks in religious settings as grounds to reject his Christian identity. North Texas pastor Josh Howerton said on Instagram earlier this year: "In the biblical category, this guy is a false prophet and a false teacher that just so happens to also be in politics."
Paxton has attributed Talarico's views to "liberal theology." But the Rev. Brian Ellison, executive director of the Covenant Network of Presbyterians, said those views likely reflect Talarico's denomination. The network advocates for LGBTQ people within the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.).
When Talarico made the nonbinary remark in the Texas legislature, he cited both masculine and feminine descriptions of God in scripture, whose presence biblical scholars across theological traditions widely acknowledge. Ellison also pointed to a 2018 PCUSA vote affirming a call for denominational leaders to protect the human and civil rights of people facing discrimination because of sexual orientation or gender identity.
Late-October polling showed a close Senate race. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Oct. 22 put Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, a difference within its 3.1-percentage-point margin of error. It surveyed 1,000 likely Texas voters Oct. 17-19. A Cook Political Report battleground survey released Oct. 21 showed Talarico ahead 49% to 44%, outside its 3.2-point margin of error; that poll surveyed 934 likely voters Oct. 9-13.
The messaging has extended beyond candidate ads. LGBTQ Nation reported that Texas Republicans sent mailers as early voting began that purported to come from a trans youth organization and urged children to transition without telling their parents. The tactic drew criticism as a "dirty, unethical trick." The outlet also reported that Trump revived his 2024 claim that schools operate on children without parental knowledge and added a claim that six states allow authorities to kidnap children and forcibly transition them.
Iowa and Kansas candidates face similar attacks
In Iowa, Republican congressional candidate Joe Mitchell questioned the faith of his Democratic opponent, the Rev. Lindsay James, in July. He called the state representative and PCUSA pastor "a pastor in name only," citing positions including her support for transgender athletes, which he described as allowing "men in women's sports."
Republican Rep. Zach Nunn has attacked his challenger, the Rev. Sarah Trone Garriott, over support for policies including gender-affirming care. His ads describe the Democratic state senator and Evangelical Lutheran Church in America pastor as "extreme and radical."
The conservative super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has also spent more than $1 million on an ad against Trone Garriott in Iowa's Third Congressional District. According to Washington Post reporting cited by LGBTQ Nation, the ad attacks her vote against a transgender sports ban. It shows local Republicans and paid actors reacting with shock and declares, "When it comes to our kids, Sarah Trone Garriott is just plain dangerous."
In Kansas, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, has become an unexpectedly competitive Senate challenger to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. At a rally for Marshall, Vance criticized Hamilton's church, Resurrection UMC, for sponsoring a local pride festival. Vance cited participation by a drag group controversial among conservative Christians and accused Hamilton of wearing the "skin suit of our religion."
Candidates' responses trouble LGBTQ Christians
The Rev. Andi Woodworth, a transgender United Methodist pastor who leads Reconciling Ministries Network, welcomes the number of liberal pastors and seminarians seeking office. But she has found the volume of anti-trans attacks painful, and both she and Ellison expressed disappointment with some candidates' responses.
James and Trone Garriott have released ads distancing themselves from positions Republicans attacked. During a recent debate, Hamilton said "there are two genders, male and female" and opposed trans boys competing in girls sports. Talarico made a similar argument on Fox News. He maintains that his position has not changed, although the remarks have widely been interpreted as a shift.
Woodworth blamed a "consultant crowd" for some of these moves, saying political advice rather than religious conviction can drive Methodist candidates toward such positions. "The 'moderate' position leaves trans people in the cold," she said.
She also described Hamilton's record as one of growing acceptance of LGBTQ people. Days after his debate comments, he drew attention from LGBTQ advocates for condemning anti-trans bullying and saying, "Jesus told me I was to love my neighbors." Woodworth said of Hamilton, "Our friend is on a journey."
Talarico, too, has continued to address the theology behind his earlier remarks. After initially calling his nonbinary description of God "cringey," he said at a CNN Town Hall that it was "provocative" but "not controversial theologically."
Woodworth said some trans Christians may decline to vote for certain Democrats, including candidates who emphasize their faith. She said their small numbers should limit Democrats' electoral concern, while also underscoring why she finds the scale of Republican anti-trans messaging so offensive: "There are not that many of us."
She hopes the scrutiny of LGBTQ-affirming theology will encourage more Christians to embrace it. "It is not hard to affirm trans people — it is, in fact, easy the more that you understand Scripture," she said.
