September corrections leave October forecast intact
The October WASDE raised the national corn yield estimate by 2.6 bushels per acre from the September estimate. Analysts cited in the Leader Telegram market column questioned that increase because crop ratings had deteriorated between reports. Some expect USDA to lower yields in subsequent balance sheet updates.
On Oct. 23, 2026, USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service said a processing error had affected its September corn data. The problem covered plant populations, ear counts, yields and production in Kansas and Nebraska, along with average plant populations and ear counts across 10 states and the national yield and production forecasts.
NASS corrected those September figures but said it had reviewed and validated the October forecasts released Oct. 9. Those forecasts remain unchanged, including the 181.2-bushel national yield estimate, AgWeb reported.
The October report increased yields in 16 states, according to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. Nebraska's 11-bushel-per-acre increase added almost 106 million bushels to projected production. Iowa's forecast stayed at a record 219 bushels per acre.
Even after the increase, the national yield estimate is 5.4 bushels per acre below last year's result. The projected harvest would also fall 300 million bushels short of expected demand.
Larger U.S. stocks, tighter global supplies
Corn futures fell sharply after the Oct. 9 report. December 2026 futures briefly dropped the 30-cent daily limit before closing down 20½ cents at $4.79¾, according to University of Arkansas extension economist Scott Stiles. The contract traded at its lowest level since Aug. 14.
USDA raised projected U.S. corn carryout for 2026/27 from September's 1.57 billion bushels to about 1.85 billion. It also cut the estimated 2026 season-average farm price by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Despite that reduction, the price forecast exceeds last year's $4.16 and is the highest since 2022.
The global outlook remains tighter than a year ago. World corn production is forecast to decline by 37 million metric tons, while stocks are expected to shrink by 26.7 million metric tons between marketing years. Analysts cited in the Leader Telegram column say those international balances deserve more attention from traders.
October's WASDE added 8 million metric tons to projected 2026/27 world ending stocks, bringing the estimate to 280.4 million metric tons, mainly because of the larger U.S. crop. Even with that increase, the donor column describes the current carryout estimate as the smallest in recent history. World ending stocks stood at 295.6 million metric tons in 2024/25 and 307.2 million metric tons last year.
China's livestock sector uses less corn
China's shrinking hog herd and more efficient feeding practices are reducing its need for feed corn. The country's feed industry used 201.5 million metric tons in 2025/26, a decrease of 9.4 million from the previous marketing year. Further efficiency gains in hog and cattle herds are expected to lower that use again. A 4 million-metric-ton increase in industrial corn demand last year offset part of the feed decline.
Fewer sows have not yet translated into lower pork output. China's Academy of Ag Science reports that the sow herd is contracting more slowly than forecast. After producing a record 59.38 million tons of pork last year, China could produce even more this year because finished hog weights remain high. Meanwhile, pork consumption has fallen 5.4% over the past year, leaving excess supplies and concerning hog industry officials.
Chinese officials forecast corn imports of 3.5 million metric tons for 2026/27, down 170,000 metric tons from a year earlier. They attribute the lower outlook primarily to fewer animals and greater use of feed wheat, as well as expectations for a domestic corn crop 5 million to 8 million metric tons larger than last year's.
In an Oct. 13 forecast, COFCO Futures agricultural products research director Zhang Dalong put expected corn purchases from Brazil and Argentina at 1.2 million metric tons each and those from the U.S. at 900,000 metric tons. Yet U.S. corn was "not an option yet," he said, because import margins were negative even with a 1% in-quota tariff, according to Reuters reporting carried by Bilyonaryo.
China is buying more sorghum, which requires fewer safety certificates than corn. Its forecast calls for 8 million metric tons of sorghum imports this year, an increase of 550,000 metric tons. Zhang separately projected 2026/27 barley imports at 10 million metric tons, down 3.14 million from a year earlier, with 2.6 million metric tons expected to arrive in the fourth quarter.
Soybean demand and competing feed supplies
China imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September, bringing its year-to-date total to 86.08 million. September arrivals were 2.1% below August and 7.7% below September 2025. Sources in China believe imports may have peaked and that demand could decline as cattle and hog producers streamline herds, improve feeding efficiency and buy alternatives, chiefly canola.
China has also reduced its domestic soybean crop estimate. The agriculture minister now forecasts 20.36 million metric tons, a cut of 590,000 metric tons from the previous revision, citing fewer planted acres and weaker-than-expected yields. That smaller crop, together with forecasts for Brazil to consume more of its own soybeans, could support increased U.S. trade with China.
The move toward substitutes extends beyond China. In recent weeks, importers have sought alternatives to expensive corn and soybeans. Feed wheat has drawn attention because it is widely available and harvests around the world continually replenish supplies. Buyers are also booking more barley and sorghum, whose safety certification requirements are less extensive than corn's.
Canola and palm oil are providing more competition for soybean traders. China is among the leading buyers shifting to alternative feedstocks and has lowered its corn and soybean import forecasts as a result.
Brazil forecasts modest production gains
Brazil's Conab expects total grain production to reach 367.1 million metric tons in 2026/27, a 1.4% increase from the previous season, according to its first crop survey released Oct. 15. World Grain reported that Conab's projected 1.4% expansion in soybean acreage would be the slowest in two decades.
The agency's initial balance sheets show relatively small changes overall. It forecasts a corn harvest of 148.02 million metric tons, 4 million more than in 2025/26. Corn exports are projected to rise from 43.92 million to 46 million metric tons, while ending stocks are expected to fall from 15.56 million to 14.9 million.
For soybeans, Conab projects production of 181.67 million metric tons, compared with 180.4 million last year. That would be Brazil's smallest projected annual production increase in recent history. Exports are forecast at 118 million metric tons, up from 116.2 million, with ending stocks slipping to 6.54 million.
Brazil's wheat balance sheet is little changed from last year: production is forecast at 5.74 million metric tons, imports at 7.06 million and ending stocks at 1.06 million.
